Airbus’ latest 20 year Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2024-2043 period offers a forward-looking view of air traffic and fleet evolutions.
Over the last four years, air transportation has again proved its resilience through the deepest and longest crisis in its history. Now, traffic and airline operations are broadly back to pre-COVID levels or higher with a few exceptions. Consequently we use 2023 as our baseline year for traffic and fleet for the first time since 2019.
This experience has highlighted once more the vital role played by aviation in connecting people and communities and as a catalyst for trade between them.
Traffic resuming its trajectory
GMF 2024-2043 connects short and long term trends, reflecting dynamic future traffic evolution particularly in regions showing significant pent-up demand, notably Asia Pacific.
In the short term we still see the conditions for strong growth. In the longer term, our forecast connects drivers for air transport demand (macroeconomic demographic…) with existing measures related to the sector’s decarbonisation through Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and CO2-prices.
More demand for aircraft replacement
People want to travel, and over the next 20 years, Airbus forecasts traffic will more than double (x2.4). In the first three years, Airbus expects traffic to grow at ~8% per year, to catch up lost growth over the pandemic, before reconnecting with an annual growth of approximately 3.6% from 2027 onwards.
New aircraft deliveries (Passenger aircraft over 100 seats and Freighters over 10 tons’ payload) will increasingly replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft. Over the next 20 years we forecast a demand for more than 42,000 new deliveries. These aircraft will further reduce fuel burn per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) which has already halved since 1990.
Today, around 30% of the world’s in service aircraft fleet are of the latest generation. Replacing the remaining 70% of previous generation aircraft, combined with more efficient ways to operate aircraft, SAF, future technologies such as hydrogen and hybridisation are key to Airbus’ decarbonisation journey, along with the use of carbon capture technologies.
Airbus flies high with 766 commercial aircraft deliveries
Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft to 86 customers around the world in 2024. The Commercial Aircraft business registered 878 gross new orders. As a result, its 2024 year end backlog stood at 8,658 aircraft.
Christian Scherer, CEO Commercial Aircraft at Airbus said, “2024 confirmed sustained demand for new aircraft. We won key customer decisions with most important customers and saw phenomenal momentum for our widebody orderbook, complementing our leading position in the single aisle market. On deliveries, we kept our trajectory and celebrated several landmark firsts. These include the first ever A321XLR as well as first A330neo and A350 deliveries to several customers globally.”
“Given the complex and fast-changing environment we continue to operate in, we consider 2024 a good year. It has been a massive team effort to deliver this 2024 result. A big thanks to Team Airbus who do what they do, every day, for our customers. And a big thanks to our customers for continuing to put their trust in us and grow our partnerships across the world”, he added.
Airbus’ 2024 full year Financial Results will be disclosed on 20 February 2025.
“We saw strong demand across our product range in the first nine months of the year. The nine-month earnings reflect the level of commercial aircraft deliveries, a solid performance in helicopters and the charges in our space business recorded in the first half. We are constantly adapting to a complex and fast-changing operating environment marked by geopolitical uncertainties and specific supply chain challenges that have materialised in the course of 2024. We remain focused on our priorities, including ramping up commercial aircraft deliveries and transforming our Defence and Space division, says Guillaume Faury, Airbus CEO”
Vincent Fernandes
