The commercial and business jet industry in 2025 shows strong recovery and growth, with business jet deliveries projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, driven by sustained demand for private travel, increased wealth, and technological advancements, though the commercial airline sector still grapples with severe supply chain bottlenecks, leading to huge order backlogs and extended delivery times for new aircraft. Key trends include a shift to regional travel hubs (Texas, Florida), longer sales cycles for used jets, and innovation in electric air taxis (eVTOLs) like Joby Aviation.
Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which also predicts airplane supply will catch up with market demand around the end of the decade, enabling carriers to increasingly renew and grow their fleets.
“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice-president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
Passenger traffic is forecast to grow 4.2 percent annually ─ more than doubling in size as it continues to outpace global economic growth. The global fleet will nearly double to more than 49,600 commercial airplanes as airlines add capacity to meet travel demand.
About 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced with more than 21,000 deliveries, improving fleet efficiency and capability.
Single-aisle airplanes will make up 72 percent of the global fleet, up from 66 percent in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets.
The global passenger widebody fleet will increase to approximately 8,320 airplanes, up from roughly 4,400 in 2024 ─ growth increasingly driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets. Supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 production and converted freighters.
The Company now targets around 790 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2025. Airbus maintains its financial guidance as provided at the Nine-Month 2025 results. The Company still targets an EBIT Adjusted of around € 7.0 billion and Free Cash Flow before Customer Financing of around € 4.5 billion.
Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2025-2044 period provides a comprehensive outlook for the evolution of air transportation. Following a robust recovery, the aviation sector is poised for sustained growth driven by societal and economic drivers. This forecast projects significant increase in passenger demand, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, coupled with a transformation towards a more sustainable and efficient global aviation system.
Over the next 20 years, we anticipate a global demand for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft. This will not only cater to growth but also drive the crucial replacement of older, less fuel-efficient fleets.
Business Jet Market (2025)
Forecasts suggest over 800 new business jet deliveries in 2025, exceeding 2019 levels for the first time post-pandemic. Continued strong demand from high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and corporations, plus increased flight hours by private and fractional operators.
A shift from the hyper-fast sales of 2021-2022 to a more balanced market with longer listing times, indicating healthier, less frantic demand.
Increased activity in Sunbelt states (Texas, Florida) and decreased demand from traditional hubs (NY, CA).
Commercial Airline Market (2025)
A major constraint, with delivery shortfalls totaling thousands of aircraft and an unprecedented order backlog (over 17,000 planes). Production Bottlenecks: Delays in engine and airframe production mean supply won’t match demand until 2031-2034.
The average commercial fleet age is rising (around 15.1 years globally) due to delivery shortfalls.
Leaders like Joby Aviation are on track for entry-into-service in 2025, signaling new possibilities for air taxis for short-haul travel.
“Bleisure” Travel: Combining business trips with leisure, increasing demand for flexible, private travel options.
Major manufacturers include Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Dassault, Embraer, Textron, and Honda (for light jets).
According to IATA, Global trade has been surprisingly resilient, despite the volatile trade policy environment. Air cargo came to everybody’s rescue as a critical enabler of rapid adaptation, ensuring that goods arrived ahead of announced tariff deadlines and facilitating the swift rerouting of China’s exports to alternative markets. Air cargo is also playing an increasingly central role in the growing trade in AI-related goods. While trade growth may slow in 2026, air cargo is well-positioned to remain robust, benefiting from AI-driven investment, growing demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, and the structural shift toward e-commerce. In times of uncertainty, when speed matters most, air freight remains the preferred option. As a result, air cargo traffic is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026.
While artificial intelligence and the associated trade flows are an opportunity for air cargo, it is much less helpful for the global energy transition. Growing electricity demand from data centers is increasing competition for limited renewable energy, making it harder to secure affordable inputs for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Without coordinated policy to prioritize renewables and safeguard liquid fuel needs, this could delay aviation’s decarbonization and divert investment away from critical climate solutions.
For 2026, we forecast a 4.9% YoY growth in passenger traffic (measured in RPK), led by the Asia Pacific region’s expansion by 7.3%. This marginal deceleration over 2025 is mainly because of persistent supply-side constraints, including limited aircraft availability, and labor shortages. Supply constraints continue to keep load factors at record highs, projected at 83.8%, which in turn supports yields and profits in an otherwise turbulent operating environment. Resilient traffic growth, together with stable yields should allow the industry to top the USD 1 trillion revenues for the first time in 2025.
Record high load factors and fleet utilization, together with a rapid expansion of ancillary revenues, will allow airlines to maintain a relatively healthy profit amid the headwinds, with record high net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026, and a stable net margin of 3.9%. This impressive achievement should be possible despite softening fares and continuous cost pressure. It must be said, though, that the airline industry remains a low-margin industry. At the higher end of the spectrum, single companies can realize our entire industry’s total annual profit in a single quarter.
Regionally, Europe is set to deliver the highest net profit, very much thanks to Turkey’s stellar performance. The Middle East is the region with the highest profit margins. Asia Pacific is where growth is the most rapid, and Latin America shows signs of structural improvement. North America faces new headwinds, including stagnating domestic demand and operational constraints, yet it remains a key contributor to industry profitability.
Sustainability is a priority for the airline industry, which is firmly committed to achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Key solutions for the industry’s decarbonization are not coming to market fast enough. SAF is projected to cover less than 1% of total fuel consumption in 2026, in an unambiguous verdict on how ineffective the current policy environment is. This unfortunately extends to the lack of harmonization between CORSIA and a multitude of other regional and national initiatives that cause fragmentation, raise costs, and curtail actual emissions reductions. Policy makers must show the will to address the energy transition at the global level, allowing all industries to operate with both financial and environmental sustainability.
Honeywell forecasts a record-setting number of new business jet deliveries over the next decade. Honeywell predicts 8,500 new business jets with a projected value of $283 billion – the highest in the report’s 34-year history – will be delivered over the next 10 years with an average annual growth rate of 3%.
“The combination of recent economic growth, increasing demand for fractional ownership and a steady cadence of new aircraft development and technology upgrades have produced record levels of demand in business aviation. Operators are increasing their usage rates and in turn manufacturers are continuing to ramp up production to keep pace with growing demand. Over the next decade, we expect these record-setting levels of deliveries and usage to continue,” says Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies.
New business jet deliveries in 2026 are expected to be 5% higher than in 2025. New business jet deliveries are expected to grow by 3% annually on average over the next 10 years. 91% of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2026 compared to 2025.
20% of operators globally have at least one aircraft on firm order – up from 17% a year ago. The figure was higher in 2025 for the subset of Part 135 and equivalent operators (private jet charters, for example), where 28% of respondents mentioned they have an aircraft on firm order.
89% of respondents consider “Performance” among their top three most important criteria when purchasing an aircraft, which compares with 82% from last year’s survey. “Cost” remains a distant second at 56%, which is down slightly from 60% last year.
Demand for fractional ownership continues to lead industry growth with Midsize and Super Midsize being the jets of choice for these customers. Among those surveyed, 12% of operators of wholly owned business aircraft say they also own fractional shares.
North America is expected to receive roughly 70% of new jet deliveries over the next three years as 17% of operators have aircraft on firm order and the region comprises a massive 62% of the global fleet. There is optimistic sentiment from operators in North America driven by regulation changes in the U.S. headlined by bonus depreciation. Operators in the region follow the global trend of flight activity optimism, with just over 90% saying they plan to fly either the same or more hours over the next year.
Europe is expected to receive about 14% of new jet deliveries over the next three years, and the portion of operators with aircraft on order is higher than the global average. Europe maintains 11% of the global business aviation fleet, but 29% of these operators state that they have at least one aircraft on firm order. The flight activity sentiment mirrors the global trends with nearly 30% of operators expecting to fly more in the coming year and about 60% expecting to fly the same.
Latin America will accept 7% of global new jet deliveries over the next three years. 15% of the global fleet is based in the region and 19% of current operators there said they have aircraft on firm order. These operators tend to be more optimistic about their flight activity growth in the coming year, with 33% of them anticipating an increase.
Remainder of the world: Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa regions are forecasted to receive 5% and 3% of global deliveries, respectively. The Middle East is poised for growth as positive regulatory changes and improvements to airport infrastructure will make it easier for business aviation entities to establish operations in and fly throughout the region.
Vincent Fernandes
